SPOKANE, Wash. — Are you dreaming of a White Christmas?
Like so many people this time of year, I think snow on or just before Christmas would be perfect! There's something magical about there being snow on the one holiday where it's appropriate. Even people who despise snow can usually set aside their animosity for this one exception.
But before I get into the predictions for this year, we need to know what defines a "White Christmas."
You need one of two things to happen. Either it has to snow on Christmas Day, or there needs to be 1" of snow on the ground (snow depth) the morning of Christmas Day.
Lucky for you, the National Weather Service does keep a comprehensive record of those climate statistics, so for that we can derive what the historical probability of a white Christmas is for any given city.
Across the state of Washington, that probability covers the entire range from a 0% chance of a white Christmas along the Pacific Coast, to a 100% chance high up in the Cascades.
Spokane historically has had a White Christmas 60% of the time. Coeur d'Alene's probability is 50% (although that is a bit lower than expected and may be an outlier in terms of data).
Sandpoint boasts a 74% chance, Northport is 80% and on the other side, Lewiston's climate history only has 14% chance of having a White Christmas, with Dayton at a low 19% as well.
If you compare Spokane's chance to other areas of the nation that don't have mountains nearby, the largest cities that come close are Madison and Green Bay, Wisconsin -- both having a 65% chance for a white Christmas. Huh, does that mean a Spokane football field could have a case at being called the "Frozen Tundra?"
As for 2019's chances, the probability is going to be a lot less than normal. Even with snow in the forecast Thursday Dec. 19, It's not going to stick around with high temperatures in the upper 40s the next day, and 40s still over the weekend. Monday (Dec. 23) has a chance for a rain/snow mix, but it doesn't appear it'll be enough to put an inch of snow on the ground.
And finally, Christmas Day looks to be dry for the Inland Northwest. So I dare say our white Christmas chances are probably 10% or less this year... unless you're planing some Christmas fun at one of our area ski resorts.
