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El Niño winter in Spokane? | KREM 2's long-range forecast for 2023-2024

KREM 2's Chief Meteorologist Jeremy LaGoo breaks down how this year's El Niño weather pattern will affect the Inland Northwest through the winter months.

SPOKANE, Wash. — This winter might be different than what we’ve experienced in recent years. Our La Nina pattern is gone, in its place, El Niño. Historically, that means warmer, drier winters, but that might not happen this winter.

The presence of an El Niño changes the jet stream pattern over the Northwest. The Arctic jet shifts north and east, keeping the bitter cold away. The Pacific jet shifts south, changing the storm track entirely.

While those changes seem small, they can have significant implications.

In Spokane and Coeur d’Alene, the average temperature in winter hovers close to freezing. The Arctic jet moving north and east could be enough to melt a lot of snow that falls in the winter months. The mountains and some of the communities to the north will see a different impact. Those average temps are much colder, so a slight bump likely won’t have any major impact on winter as a whole.

The storm track is a different story. In El Niño years, storms tend to move more zonally or west to east. A zonal pattern in the Northwest means most rain and snow stays in the mountains. The rain shadow of the Cascades tends to keep Central Washington dry, while Eastern Washington and North Idaho tend to see a more normal amount of precipitation.

This winter might be the one that keeps everyone happy. It is mild in Spokane, other cities in Eastern Washington, and North Idaho but snowy and cold up in the mountains.

Keep in mind this is just a forecast. Many other factors could bring us right back into a cold, snowy pattern at the drop of a hat. After all, it is winter in the Inland Northwest.

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