SPOKANE, Wash. — Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow early Wednesday morning after he was yanked from his home. According to lore, that means we are in for 6 more weeks of winter. Historically, the little guy isn’t the most accurate forecaster, but this year he might be onto something for Spokane and the Inland Northwest.
Forecasting broadly for the entire country is a sure way to get it wrong. Our weather is controlled by the jet stream. The narrow band of strong wind high in the atmosphere acts as a highway for storm activity with ridges and troughs driving the weather factors we feel on the ground. A trough pattern typically offers cooler, wetter weather, while a ridge usually offers more sun and warmer temperatures.
In the weeks and months to come it looks like the overall jet pattern favors ridging over the Eastern U.S. and a trough over the Northwest. This doesn’t predict exact temperatures or precipitation, but it gives an overall idea of what to expect. That means a pattern of warmer days out east and colder, wetter weather here in the Inland Northwest.
Long-range models suggest troughing over the Northwest through the month of February and continuing through April. That pattern doesn’t mean constant cold and precipitation, just a little more than our recent norms.
A cooler, wetter weather pattern is a good thing for the Inland Northwest. Last year we started drying out toward the end of winter. The dry spell and warm temperatures turned into a drought and exceptionally hot summer.
We typically dry out through the summer here in the Inland Northwest, so any snow we get this time of year is a good thing. Right now, 52-percent of the state remains in drought following last summer's arid weather. Needless to say, we need the moisture.
Keep in mind, Punxsutawney Phil is a rodent. He hasn’t even been to elementary school, much less college for atmospheric sciences. So, we should take his forecast with a grain of salt. That being said, this year he seems to align with our long-range forecast here in the Inland Northwest, and I, for one, am rooting for him to be right.
WATCH MORE: Jeremy LaGoo's 2021-2022 winter forecast: What La Niña could bring to Spokane, North Idaho