WASHINGTON, USA — As the Pacific Northwest's crabbing crisis continues, scientists are still working to determine if this year's snow crabbing season will be canceled for a third straight year.
"The reality of the situation is that until we see more recruitment into that large male size class that the fishery targets, it seems in conversations that the industry is preparing for closure," said Erin Fedewa, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Fedewa studies the species and collects population data that will eventually help determine the quantity crabbers can catch annually. However, the last five years have brought quite a few changes.
In 2019, there were record-high snow crabs in the Bering Sea and industry-wide optimism. In 2020, the annual survey was canceled, so no one knew the status of the crabs. Then, when Fedewa and her team returned to count the population in 2021, millions of crabs seemingly vanished.
What caused the swift decline?
Scientists at NOAA have since identified the main reason for the collapse as "an ecological shift from Arctic to sub-Arctic conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea due to human-caused climate change."
It was discovered that the warmer water temperatures didn't immediately kill the crabs, but when the waters got too warm, their metabolism increased. There wasn't enough food to keep up with their caloric demand.
In addition to temperature changes, the team at NOAA noted other factors that indicate a shift from an Arctic to a sub-Arctic regime. They found a decline in sea ice and an increase in snow crab predators, a disease known to kill snow crabs, and areas of spring algal blooms.
The study also confirmed scientists' initial beliefs that the population decline was not due to overfishing as the level of mortality was too high.
“What is particularly noteworthy is these boreal conditions associated with the snow crab collapse are more than 200 times likely to occur in the present climate (1.0° –1.5° of warming rate) than in the preindustrial era,” Mike Litzow, lead author and director of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center’s Kodiak Lab, wrote in the press release. “Even more concerning is that Arctic conditions conducive for snow crabs to retain their dominant role in the southeastern Bering Sea are expected to continue to decline in the future.”
'It's still crisis mode'
Now, scientists are working to figure out if there are enough crabs for a season, which would start Oct. 15.
Scientists are seeing positive growth.
Fedewa says water temperatures are returning closer to normal and baby crabs are slowly growing.
"Since then, 2022 and 2023, this survey has been more of a sort of positive sign for the stock," Fedewa said. "We’ve seen new recruitment, meaning we have more juvenile snow crabs that are entering the system, and the idea is that it’ll take three to four years for those crabs to reach maturity and reach sizes that the fishery is targeting."
But it's a waiting game, as those crabs need time to grow to a catchable size.
"I think it’s something that weighs heavily on fishery managers. When you’re closing a fishery, you are not only acknowledging that you are potentially allowing stock to recover, but you’re also impacting the livelihoods of an entire fishing community and industry," said Fedewa.
Scott Goodman, the executive director of the Bering Sea Fisheries Research Foundation, says the last two closures were "a huge hit."
"It's still crisis mode. The crab industry is struggling to survive," he said. "There's disaster relief money on the federal side but that comes very, very slowly and it’s nowhere near enough. It’s not like normal. So, I think we’re in a mode right now where we’re hoping to see recovery in the stocks themselves and get a place back where the fishery is open."
Goodman says crabbers are hopeful for balance.
"I think the reality is that the industry understands that we’re likely in a period of small seasons for a bit and I think we’re very much interested in that in a sustainable way, but we’d hope to see more of a recovery so that this isn’t the new normal," Goodman said.
While Goodman said snow crab is the big money maker, there are two other species whose populations are doing well this season: Tanner and Bristol Bay red king crab.
He said that before the crabbing crisis began, crabbers would catch 30-80 million pounds of crab per season. Snow crabs comprise the majority of that: the year before the shutdowns began, 45 million pounds of snow crabs were caught.
In comparison, he said Tanner crabs have neared 20 million pounds caught per season and red king crabs are ideally more than 5 million pounds per season. Last year, there was a small season for Tanner and red kind crabs, but it was less than five million total.
Fedewa reports that both species are looking incredibly positive this year.
Goodman said he is optimistic crabbers will be able to catch Tanner and red king crabs this year, which is better than nothing.
"I think the reality is crabbers want to be fishing. It's expensive to have boats tied up and it’s expensive to not be fishing," Goodman said.
There are many hoops to jump through to determine the status of the season. NOAA first conducts its survey to gather population numbers and then presents that data to the Crab Planning Team, which analyzes final assessment models. This process happened in early September.
In the final week of September, the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council is set to meet to set the overfishing level. That is then sent to the State of Alaska, which sets the total allowable catch, which is the final say in the status of the season.
The season starts October 15, so a decision will be made by then.
The long-term future
While this exact situation and the death of millions of crabs was a historic first, Fedewa warns that it doesn't make it a one-time occurrence.
She said the warm ocean temperatures that caused this rapid decline are cooling back to normal, helping this population slowly rebuild now. However, it could happen again.
"The positive of that situation is that we can hopefully begin to anticipate when this is going to happen again and because we have seen this collapse, I think in looking back, the hope is that if and when we do have future heatwaves, the hope is that we’ll be better prepared for it,"
In this situation, they lost a year of data collection in 2020 when their survey was canceled, so their response was delayed. Ideally, in the future, they will react faster if there is any indication of a similar situation.
With a changing climate and warming ocean waters, it is certainly possible.
"I think that if anything it might take more careful decisions, anticipating change, learning how to forecast these changes, to then shift our focus to managing the fishery more appropriately if we can anticipate these changes," she said.