SPOKANE, Wash. — It is the end of March and the vast majority of fans expected the Zags to still be in action.
They are not.
And the future of this team? Well, it’s a work in progress.
Last year going into the offseason, things felt much more stable with, well, a healthy stable of five-stars coming in. That’s not the case this time around, especially after Anthony Black spurned the Bulldogs on Monday for the same team that knocked them out of the tournament.
Today we are taking a look at the state of the Zags as the makeup of next year’s roster is in flux.
Gonzaga's Starters
Here’s how I think this year’s starting five will all shake out. I want to make this clear that I have no inside info. Just putting what I think will happen out there.
- Andrew Nembhard and Rasir Bolton leave. I think they both have accomplished what they want to at the collegiate level. Plus, there are many Gonzaga guards in the wings. These two staying would result in some serious transfers.
- Chet Holmgren leaves. He’s a top-three draft pick. Anyone thinking he’d mull staying, just, no. Get that out of your brain.
- Julian Strawther stays. Yes, he’s on some draft boards, but he could make a Corey Kispert-like jump into the lottery next season. He will make himself more money long-term staying, and he’ll make more NIL money next year too.
- That leaves one other player and the biggest one: Drew Timme. I think he… stays. Here’s why:
- Timme time and again this year talked about the “Zag way” to do things. To put it mildly, how Gonzaga’s tournament run shook out this year, doesn’t fit in Timme’s definition. The way Drew looked at the court after the Zags lost to Arkansas looked like a man wholly unsatisfied and even more determined, at least to me. He came to college to win a championship. I just don’t see Drew going out like that.
- Yes, of course, the money. It’s been widely reported that Timme makes over six figures in NIL deals. That’s only going up after this tournament run. For example, if Timme were to go undrafted and sign a two-way deal with an NBA team, he would make around 500k next season. He could very realistically make more staying in college.
- Ah, that pesky pro situation. Timme’s game just doesn’t mesh with the NBA currently. Yes, his three-point shooting improved this year, but it still needs more work. He only made eight on the season and only took 28. He needs that shot to have a realistic chance at being drafted and signing a guaranteed contract.
Gonzaga's Bigs
So, now let’s look at the bigs group presuming Timme stays. That leaves us with Anton Watson, Kaden Perry, Ben Gregg, and incoming recruit Braden Huff.
It’s a good group of bigs, but I very much expect the Zags to snag an enforcer type out of the portal. Someone who can block shots and is a bigger body in the lane.
I do think Kaden Perry will be that at some point with the Zags, but he needs a year of solid play. His back issues—which are a concern after a year straight of them for the freshman—robbed him of that experience this season.
Gonzaga's Guards
Yes, Anthony Black committing to Arkansas on Monday was a blow, but when you look at this guard group, there are a lot of really talented guys waiting their turn.
The whole plan when the Zags recruited Nolan Hickman was for him to take over as point guard for next season after a year under Nembhard this season. From the looks of it, that plan is still in place. Hunter Sallis, of course, is another five-star guard who will see increased playing time as long as Bolton leaves. There’s also Dominick Harris, who has sparingly played for the Zags over the last two years due to being injured this past season and backing up players like Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard the year before. We’ve already touched on Strawther and don’t need to dive any deeper into him.
There are some obvious questions with this group though. For example, who will back up Hickman at the point? Harris could do it most likely, but his natural position is shooting guard.
There’s also the question of three-point shooting. Strawther proved to be formidable on that front this season. The Zags will need more than just Strawther though. Harris, once again, could help in that department. Time will tell.
I could definitely see the Zags going out and trying to pick up a point guard who can shoot the three in the portal.
However, that could also cause one or more of the kids in this group to transfer. This group is much more of a balancing act than the bigs in my eyes.
Gonzaga's Future
Let’s end with this: There are people out there saying that the window has closed for GU. I simply don’t believe that.
Mark Few is 59. He has at least another 10 years in him.
This program has been operating at the level of a Duke or a North Carolina for the last five years. I bring that up intentionally. Look at an NCAA Tournament bracket last season and tell me where those teams lost in the tournament.
That’s right, you won’t be able to find them because neither of them even made it. Now, look where they are.
The window for Gonzaga hasn’t closed, it’s just open with possibilities.
Let’s see what Few and company do with it.