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What could this year's flu season look like in Spokane?

The CDC uses 'flu forecasting' to determine what we might expect before the virus spreads. It's not an exact science, but rather a reflection of the possibilities.

SPOKANE COUNTY, Wash. — Oct. 1 marked the first day of the flu season by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention standards. 

While the severity and timing can be unpredictable, researchers use “flu forecasting” to determine what we might expect before the virus spreads.

"It's a science and it's not always an exact science and I think that's one of the challenges,” said Dr. Bob Lutz with the Spokane Regional Health District.

Flu forecasting can be complicated, Lutz explained, but looking into trends and indicators from other parts of the world can give insight to health researchers to predict when the start, peak and increases in flu activity could happen.

John Owen reached out to KREM asking if there’s any indication of an early flu season because he noticed more people falling ill, including himself.

"I started feeling the achiness, body achiness, and the chills,” Owen explained.

RELATED: Health officials: It's time to give flu vaccine another shot

All of the symptoms are telltale signs of the flu, a virus he had a few years ago. When he went to his doctor, they told him what he feared.

"They gave me the test and I tested positive for Influenza B,” Owen said.

Lutz said they monitor flu activity in the region and doctors are seeing people with influenza already, including Owen, who is still recovering from flu. But the SRHD said they are not seeing more cases than usual.

"I think my case was relatively mild, but what struck me though it seemed early in the season,” Owen said.

The CDC uses flu forecasting in other parts of the world to see what we can expect during our flu season.

RELATED: Washington flu activity surges in unusual late-season burst

"They're based on observations and estimates of what existed before and what's the likelihood of the same strains being the dominant ones the following year,” Dr. Lutz explained.

Dr. Lutz said it's not an exact science but rather a reflection of the possibilities.

"We hope that what's seen in the southern hemisphere provides guidance for us, not only in creating the vaccines but also what we can expect and how we monitor it as well as inform the community and providers on how to address it,” he added.

The flu season in the southern hemisphere started early then tapered off, which means we too could see an early flu season.

Dr. Lutz said a current concern is the flu vaccine that's recommended in the Northern Hemisphere might not match what was seen in the Southern Hemisphere. Nonetheless, health officials still recommend getting vaccinated.

"If it doesn't match and we see those same strains in the northern hemisphere you don't have that good coverage of the vaccine that's always the concern, but again it's kind of an unknown at this point,” he said.

Health officials say most people who get a flu shot this fall can expect protection through the spring. It's why they recommend getting the shot sooner than later.

RELATED: Spokane Co. flu deaths up to 15, almost all were unvaccinated

The following is a report on Spokane County seeing a drop in flu hospitalizations and deaths in 2018.

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