SPOKANE, Wash. — During Wednesday's Spokane Regional Health District (SRHD) meeting, Health Officer Dr. Francisco Velazquez and Epidemiologist and Program Manager Mark Springer discussed current COVID-19 trends in Eastern Washington, including testing, positivity rate, and when the state of Washington may see its peak in new COVID-19 cases.
Velazquez said Spokane County is seeing fewer COVID-related hospitalizations from the Omicron variant than the Delta variant. As of Wednesday, Sacred Heart Medical Center currently has 82 COVID-19 patients and Kootenai Health in North Idaho has 86 COVID-19 patients.
During the meeting, Velazquez also gave an encouraging update on when the state will reach its peak in Omicron COVID-19 cases, stating that two different models suggest it may be as soon as the end of January.
According to Velazquez, one model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is based on data from Washington state as well as the rest of the world, suggests Washington will see a peak in COVID-19 cases by Jan. 28, 2022, with Spokane County seeing a peak in the following weeks.
"We do know, based on data we have for this whole pandemic, that whenever we've seen a case rate trend in the more highly-populated counties in western Washington, we typically see a similar case rate trend replicated in Spokane County, usually about two weeks or so beyond them," he explained.
However, these projections can be impacted by a number of factors, including vaccination and exposure rates.
"If the modeling remains accurate, meaning that no other factors impact the trajectory of the algorithms, what that tells us is we will see the highest numbers around that time, closer to the end of the month," Velazquez explained. "If we follow what other parts of the country have seen, we should see a downward trend. beyond that."
While the modeling is impacted by several factors, Velazquez said personal behaviors are one of the most impactful factors of when Spokane County will see a peak in COVID-19 cases.
"We need to be very mindful and we need to be very diligent with what we do over the next several weeks," he added. "Keep doing the right thing. We're almost there, we just have to work through this a little bit longer."