SPOKANE, Wash. — Click here for the latest updates on the COVID-19 peak in eastern Washington and statewide
An institute creating projections used by the White House coronavirus task force is estimating Washington could see more than 900 COVID-19 deaths before the end of the outbreak.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is part of the University of Washington, entered the headlines on Tuesday when Dr. Deborah Birx said 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus pandemic are possible if social distancing is maintained. Her statement was backed up by data and projections from the institute.
IHME has its forecast published on its website. The projections are broken down by state and include estimated hospital and ICU beds needed, deaths per day and total deaths.
The estimates for Washington say the state will hit the peak of its curve for deaths per day on April 9. At that time, IHME estimates 22 people from Washington will die from COVID-19 every day.
The number of deaths per day is expected to begin slowly decreasing by April 17, according to projections.
The projections say Washington will have enough hospitals beds for the additional demand brought by the coronavirus, but they do raise concerns about ICU beds.
IHME says the state will need 350 ICU beds while only 341 are available, leading to a shortage of nine beds.
The projects estimate that a total of 978 people will die from COVID-19 in Washington state by Aug. 4, 2020. They estimate that the final death in the state, though, would come at the beginning of June.
The peak date for hospital demand in Washington will be April 11, according to IHME.
According to Spokane County health officials, the peak for deaths and resources in eastern Washington could come later.
Spokane County Health Officer Dr. Bob Lutz expressed concerns on Monday about the spread of the disease on the east side of the state. He estimated hat COVID-19 could peak in late April or even into May for Spokane County specifically.
“Long story short, we are not seeing a flattening of the curve at this point," Lutz said during a briefing on Friday, adding that Spokane County is still seeing a 10-20% increase in cases every day.
“Whereas it’s been stated that the state is flattening the curve to some degree, I think that’s a relative statement," he added.
On Thursday, Gov. Jay Inslee extended Washington state's stay home order aimed at curbing the state's outbreak of coronavirus through May 4, one month past the original ending date.
Inslee said that the data collected on the spread of the novel coronavirus shows it is still on the rise in Washington state.
"The science is clear: more people will die if we stop now," he said.
In the United States as a whole, IHME predicts that the peak date for hospital demand is projected to be April 15. The peak for deaths is projected on April 16, with 2,644 COVID-19 deaths per day.
TEGNA Staff contributed to this report.
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